Browsing by Author "Harison, Harison"
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Item ALGORITMA NAIVE BAYES UNTUKMEMPREDIKSI STATUS PENGAJUAN KREDIT KEPEMILIKAN RUMAH(Elfitra, 2023-02) Andriano, Andriano; Harison, HarisonThis study discusses the classification analysis of the status of housing loan applications (KPR) at one of the banks in Pekanbaru City using the naïve Bayes algorithm. The purpose of this study is to classify data on the status of mortgage applications at one of the banks in Pekanbaru City. The results show that the highest posterior value is in the rejected class. Classify naïve Bayes able to classify data on mortgage application status. This is shown from the confusion matrix, namely, the accuracy value reaches 50.96%, the sensitivity is 78.05%, and the specificity is 16.25%.Item ANALISIS DISKRIMINAN LINIER UNTUK KLASIFIKASI KABUPATEN/KOTA DI PROVINSI RIAU BERDASARKAN INDIKATOR INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA(perpustakaan UR, 2021-11) Hudri, Ghemala Huriani; Harison, HarisonRiau Province consists of 12 districts/cities where the Human Development Index (HDI) in this province continues to progress. In 2015-2019 HDI grew up to an average of 0.75%, in 2019 the highest HDI was in Pekanbaru city at 81.35 and the lowest was in Meranti Islands district at 65.93. This study aims to examine the variables that are thought to have an effect on the classification of districts/cities in Riau Province into low, medium, high and very high HDI categories using linear discriminant analysis. This study uses five variables that are thought to have an effect, this study shows that the linear discriminant function formed is significant and the level of accuracy of the linear discriminant function formed is accurate with a validation level of 91.6%.Item ANALISIS FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN UNTUK MERAMALKAN NILAI TUKAR PETANI PROVINSI RIAU(Elfitra, 2022-12) Hsb, Siti Puspa Wanti; Harison, HarisonThe agricultural sector is one of the primary sectors that become the main employment for the people of Indonesia, as well as the population of Riau Province who mostly live in rural areas by working in the agricultural sector. Farmers' welfare level can be measured by Farmer's Exchange Rate (NTP). Forecasting can be done to predict NTP in the future. This study uses a forecasting method, namely fuzzy time series markov chain using NTP data from Riau Province in the period January 2013 - March 2022. The results of forecasting NTP Riau Province for the next period in April 2022 obtained 154.35 with a MAPE value of 1.3948%. The MAPE value shows that the results of forecasting NTP data in Riau Province can be categorized as very good because the MAPE value is less than 10%.Item ANALISIS MULTIDIMENSIONAL SCALING DAN CLUSTER FUZZY C-MEANS PADA DATA INDIKATOR KESEJAHTERAAN RAKYAT DI INDONESIA(Elfitra, 2022-04) Novita, Nadya; Harison, HarisonThe Covid-19 pandemic has an impact on the level of people's welfare in regional segmentation. Graphical and clustering can be done to determine the level of welfare of the people in Indonesia during the pandemic so that segmental policies can be taken. This study uses the Central Bureau of Statistics data, namely indicators of the welfare of the people in Indonesia which consists of GRDP value, per capita expenditure, percentage of poor people, level of open space, and average length of schooling. Graphical analysis using multidimensional scaling produced 2 groups of provinces consisting of 30 and 4 provinces and of regencies/cities consisting of 494 and 20 regencies/cities. Validation of multidimensional scaling of STRESS values close to 0 and R square equal to 1. Clustering using fuzzy C-Means for welfare status by province has 2 clusters consisting of 30 and 4 provinces and by regencies/cities consisting of 495 and 19 regencies/cities. Comparison of each variable obtained cluster 2 is more prosperous than cluster 1. Cluster validation using MPC and FSI is close to 1.Item ANALISIS REGRESI DATA PANEL STUDI KASUS PERSENTASE KEMISKINAN KAB/KOTA PROVINSI RIAU TAHUN 2015-2019(2021-01) Rahmah, Kholiqa; Harison, HarisonAverage length of schooling, life expectancy, length of schooling expectancy and middle age enrollment rates are variables that contribute to the percentage of poverty. The data used are data from BPS Riau Province 2015 - 2018 in the form of cross section and time series data, then regression analysis which is a statistical analysis to explain the relationship of a response variable using one or more explanatory variables is carried out using panel data regression which has 3 models. the best, between the common effect model, fixed effect and random effect. By comparing the common effect, fixed effect and random effect models in order to obtain the best modeling for the percentage of poverty in Riau Province Regency / City, namely the random effect model.Item ANALISIS REGRESI LOGISTIK BINER PADA TINGKAT KESEJAHTERAAN LANSIA DI KOTA PEKANBARU(2021-02) Doyo, Medtrio; Harison, HarisonThe welfare of the elderly in Indonesia is ranked 74 out of 96 countries studied with an index score of 36.6. This index can be said that the welfare of the elderly in Indonesia is still very lacking, so the government must pay special attention to the elderly population so that the elderly population can remain in a prosperous condition. Some of these variables gender, marital status, type of area, presence of travel, ownership of health insurance, ownership of savings, use of cellphones, whether or not they are victims of crime, having health complaints are affected of contributing to welfare in Pekanbaru City. The data used is the Riau Province BPS data of 2009 in the form of cross section data. Then, the analysis is carried out using binary logistic regression in order to obtain modeling for the welfare of the elderly in Pekanbaru City. The study shows that the factors that influence the welfare level of the elderly are age, gender, type of area, marital status, ownership of savings, use of cellphones, health complaints, crime victims and ownership of health insurance. Furthermore the variables that has a tendency on welfare are age , gender, use of cellphones and ownership of savings.Item ANALISIS SPASIAL TINGKAT KESEJAHTERAAN DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED LOGISTIC REGRESSION(Elfitra, 2022-02) Reskia, Amanda; Harison, HarisonGeographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) is a method of combining Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) with logistic regression which is applied to spatial data. The purpose of this research to determine model on community welfare using GWLR and find factors that influence the possibility of increasing the welfare status of each Province in Indonesia 2019. The variables used are total manpower, rate of GRDP, PMWand LFPR. In the response variable, the level of welfare as measured by the human development index (HDI) is in the binary category, namely 0 and 1 following the Bernoulli distribution. The results showed that the GWLR model with the Adaptive Gaussian Kernel function was better than the logistic regression model with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 37.97.Item ANALISIS SPASIAL TINGKAT KESEJAHTERAAN DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED LOGISTIC REGRESSION(Elfitra, 2022-03) Reskia, Amanda; Harison, HarisonGeographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) is a method of combining Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) with logistic regression which is applied to spatial data. The purpose of this research to determine model on community welfare using GWLR and find factors that influence the possibility of increasing the welfare status of each Province in Indonesia 2019. The variables used are total manpower, rate of GRDP, PMWand LFPR. In the response variable, the level of welfare as measured by the human development index (HDI) is in the binary category, namely 0 and 1 following the Bernoulli distribution. The results showed that the GWLR model with the Adaptive Gaussian Kernel function was better than the logistic regression model with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 37.97.Item DIAGRAM KONTROL EXPONENTIALLY WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE POISSON PADA KASUS JUMLAH KECELAKAAN LALU LINTAS KOTA PEKANBARU(Elfitra, 2022-06) Ilmadinah, Mizaqqul; Harison, HarisonThe high population in Pekanbaru City requires a statistical control process on the number of traffic accidents that occur. Controlling of the number of accidents is carried out to monitor the level of accidents that occur so that it can be used for accident evaluation. Statistical quality control is a technique used in controlling and monitoring a process with statistical methods. The research has been conducted using the EWMA Poisson control chart for attribute data as a control tool with data on the number of traffic accidents in Pekanbaru City in January 2017-December 2021. The analysis was carried out with different weight values of λ (0<λ≤1) so as to give the results of the control chart Poisson's EWMA with different plot patterns. By using variance λ that are 1,0; 0,9; 0,7; 0,5; 0,3; 0,2; 0,1 indicates that the resulting control chart is more sensitive when the weight value of decreases. Sensitivity is seen based on the number of sample points that are outside the control limits of UCL and LCL.Item DIAGRAM KONTROL EXPONENTIALLY WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE POISSON PADA KASUS JUMLAH KECELAKAAN LALU LINTAS KOTA PEKANBARU(Elfitra, 2022-06) Ilmadinah, Mizaqqul; Harison, HarisonThe high population in Pekanbaru City requires a statistical control process on the number of traffic accidents that occur. Controlling of the number of accidents is carried out to monitor the level of accidents that occur so that it can be used for accident evaluation. Statistical quality control is a technique used in controlling and monitoring a process with statistical methods. The research has been conducted using the EWMA Poisson control chart for attribute data as a control tool with data on the number of traffic accidents in Pekanbaru City in January 2017-December 2021. The analysis was carried out with different weight values of λ (0<λ≤1) so as to give the results of the control chart Poisson's EWMA with different plot patterns. By using variance λ that are 1,0; 0,9; 0,7; 0,5; 0,3; 0,2; 0,1 indicates that the resulting control chart is more sensitive when the weight value of decreases. Sensitivity is seen based on the number of sample points that are outside the control limits of UCL and LCL.Item ESTIMATOR GENERALIZED LEAST SQUARE UNTUK SEEMINGLY UNRELATED REGRESSION PADA KASUS INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA DI SUMATERA(perpustakaan UR, 2021-11) Ramadhani, Ananda; Harison, HarisonSumatera is one of the largest islands in Indonesia, and it consists of 10 provinces. Based on data from Badan Pusat Statistik the Human Development Index (HDI) in Indonesia, all provinces on the island of Sumatera have high HDI rates. This study aims to analyze and determine the factors that influence the HDI rate in Province of Sumatera island. Factors thought to be influential are the percentage of poor population (PPM), the level of open unemployment (TPT), literacy rate (AMH) and Gini Ratio. Based on the results of the analysis by comparing the results of Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimation of Generalized Least Square (GLS) and also Ordinary Least Square (OLS), it’s concluded that the SUR estimation results with GLS estimate produce a more efficient equation with smaller error. The results of GLS estimation produce a greater coefficient of determination, which is 99.99%, while OLS estimation is 98.86%.Item KLASIFIKASI ANGKA PENCURIAN DI RIAU DENGAN MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINES (MARS) DAN BOOTSTRAP AGGREGATING MARS(Elfitra, 2022-06) Haura, Zhafira; Harison, HarisonOne of the nonparametric regression methods that can be used for classification is Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) which is enhanced using bootstrap aggregating (bagging) with 50 replications. This method is applied to conventional crime data, namely cases of theft which can be seen based on crime rates in Riau Province in 2016-2020. The dependent variable used is the theft crime rate, while the independent variables are population density (𝑋!), poverty rate (𝑋"), RLS (𝑋#), and PDRB (𝑋$). This study aims to form the best model and see the results of the classification based on the factors that influence the crime rate indicators in Riau Province. Bagging MARS method with training data of 68% produces a minimum GCV value is 0.08961, while the MARS method is 0.13993 in obtaining the best model. The MARS method yields 60% for accuracy, 80% for sensitivity and specificity 40%. The best accuracy value is 85% with sensitivity is 100% and specificity is 70% using bagging MARS with testing data by 32%. The most influential variable using the MARS method and bagging MARS on the crime rate indicator of theft cases in Riau Province in 2016-2020 are the poverty rate (X") variable with an importance level of 100%.Item KOMPARASI KOEFISIEN KORELASI NILAI TUKAR PETANI MENGGUNAKAN KOEFISIEN KORELASI PEARSON, SPEARMAN-rho, DAN Kendall-tau(perpustakaan UR, 2021-09) Sulistyowati, Ayu Rika; Harison, HarisonFarmer terms of trade rate is one of the indicators in determining the price of farmers production. This reseach is a case study on the farmer terms of trade in Riau Province using the correlation coefficient between the relavant variables. The data used is from the Central Statistics Agency for the period January 2016 – December 2019 with the dependent variable being the farmer exchange rate and the independent variables, namely: the price index received by farmers, the price index paid by farmers, household consumption, and production costs and additional capital goods. The correlation cofficient used is the Pearson, Spearman-rho, and Kendall-tau correlation coefficient to see the correlation, the degree of relationship, and the direction of the relationship and determine the variables that most influence the farmer terms of trade. Based on the results of the research, it was concluded that the cost of production and additional of capital goods were the variables that most effected the farmer terms of tradeItem PEMODELAN ANGKA HARAPAN HIDUP LAKI-LAKI DAN PEREMPUAN DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN REGRESI SEMIPARAMETRIK SPLINE TRUNCATED(Elfitra, 2023-08) Wulandari, Novalita; Harison, HarisonLife expectancy (LE) ) is an indicator of health status used to improve the quality of human life. This study models the LE of men and women to determine the factors that have a significant effect using a truncated spline semiparametric regression approach. This regression is done by looking at the optimum knot point from the minimum Cross Validation (CV) value. Based on the method used, the best model produced is with three knot points. The results of the analysis on male LE are that all independent variables have a significant effect, with a minimum CV value of 5.30 and a coefficient of determination ( ) of 96.70%. Meanwhile, in female LE, there are three independent variables that have a significant effect out of a total of eight independent variables, with a minimum CV value of 11.05 and a coefficient of determination ( ) of 86,82%.Item PEMODELAN INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK ADITIF SPLINE SMOOTHING DENGAN ESTIMATOR PENALIZED(perpustakaan UR, 2021-09) Febrina, Ezra Cristy; Harison, HarisonThe Human Development Index (HDI) in Indonesia currently ranks 121 out of 187 countries and Indonesia is in 6th position out of 10 ASEAN countries, where the quality of human resources in Indonesia is still low. This research is HDI modeling using nonparametric regression additive spline smoothing with penalized estimator. The data used is secondary data obtained from BPS (2019). This data includes the Human Development Index (IPM), Life Expectancy (UHH), Expected Length of Schooling (HLS), Average Length of Schooling (RLS), and Adjusted Per capita Expenditure (PPD) in 2019. Spline smoothing method with penalized estimator can be obtained from this research is one optimal knot point using generalized cross validation criteria, then the application of a nonparametric regression model additive spline smoothing with a penalized estimator on HDI data in Indonesia which has an MSE of 0,002623 and an Rsquare of 99,98Item PEMODELAN KASUS PENGGUNAAN ALAT KONTRASEPSI TERHADAP FERTILITAS DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE REGRESI KUANTIL(Elfitra, 2022-11) Sandika, Wisnu; Harison, HarisonIndonesia is a country with the fourth largest population in the world. The results of the population census in 2020 show the total population in Indonesia is 270.20 million people. The rapid population growth in Indonesia raises the problem of population density. The Government of the Republic of Indonesia through the National Family Planning Population Agency (BKKBN) has created a program, namely the Family Planning (KB) program. The family planning program managed by the BKKBN encourages the community to realize the program through the use of contraceptives. This study aims to analyze and model cases of contraceptive use on fertility in Indonesia using the quantile regression method with parameter estimation using the simplex method. The modeling of cases of contraceptive use on fertility in Indonesia using quantile regression resulted in different parameter estimates for each quantile and the best model was obtained at quintile 0.6 with a coefficient of determination (𝑅2) of 52%. The results of cases using contraceptives that have a significant effect on fertility are the IUD/AKDR/spiral variable (𝑋2), the natural breastfeeding method variable (𝑋6), the periodic abstinence variable (𝑋7) and the male condom/KB rubber variable (𝑋9). Other results show that there are independent variabels that can reduce fertility rates, namely the IUD/AKDR/spiral variable (𝑋2) and the male condom/KB rubber variable (𝑋9).Item PENDUGAAN PARAMETER REGRESI LOGISTIK MULTINOMIAL MENGGUNAKAN METODE LASSO UNTUK ANALISIS SUMBER PENERANGAN UTAMA DI PEKANBARU(2021-07) Gobel, Christy; Harison, HarisonThe main sources of lighting can be classified into three groups, namely power utility with meter, power utility without meter, and not electrical lighting. Based on the results of the National Socio-economic Survey (Susenas) 2019 conducted by the Central Bureau of Statistics in Pekanbaru City, it is recorded that as many as 0.9% of the family heads' homes in Pekanbaru city still do not use electricity. This study aims to model and know the factors that are suspected to influence the difference in the status of the main sources of lighting in Pekanbaru City in 2019 using the LASSO method. The test results showed there were four significant variables, namely the highest education attained by head of household, the status of home ownership, the status of other home ownership , and the number of family membersItem PENERAPAN METODE EXTREME GRADIENT BOOSTING PADA KLASIFIKASI STATUS KEBANGKRUTAN PERSEROAN TERBATAS DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA(Elfitra, 2023-07) Nurleta, Evi; Harison, HarisonCorporate bankruptcy is characterized by financial difficulties. To classify with the aim of predicting the bankruptcy status of Limited Liability Companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2021, it can be done using the XGBoost method. The variables used are the financial ratios Net Working Capital to Total Assets (WCTA), Retained Earnings to Total Assets (RETA), Earnings Before Interest and Tax to Total Assets (EBITTA), Book Value of Equity to Book of Debt (BVETA). The bankruptcy status is safe, gray (needs special attention), and distress (bankrupt). Based on the classification results using training data of 80% and testing data of 20%, a classification accuracy rate of 93.00%, 90.95% precision and 90.28% sensitivity is obtained, and it is known that the WCTA and RETA variables are the most important features in classifying bankruptcy classes. The results of this classification can be used for forecasting the bankruptcy of a Limited Liability Company and as a reference for making policies in dealing with bankruptcy.Item PENGGUNAAN ANALISIS KORELASI PARSIAL PENGARUH ANGKATAN KERJA DAN UPAH MINIMUM TERHADAP PENGANGGURAN DI PROVINSI RIAU TAHUN 2018-2020(Elfitra, 2023-01) Ramadani, Lisa Zulia; Harison, HarisonUnemployment includes the workforce who are looking for work or are preparing for a business. The existence of a labor force that is working and unemployment in a region depends on the minimum wage in that region. The higher the minimum wage in an area, the higher the number of workers, thereby reducing the number of unemployed in that area. This study will discuss the partial correlation analysis of the labor force with the minimum wage on unemployment in Riau Province, using data from 2018-2020 in Riau Province. This analysis uses the product moment correlation coefficient which is used to find the relationship and prove the hypothesis of two variables if the data of the two variables are in the form of intervals or ratios. Based on the method used, the results show that the labor force and the minimum wage have no effect on unemployment in Riau Province.Item PENGGUNAAN METODE ANALISIS DATA ENVELOPMENT PADA PENGUKURAN EFISIENSI KINERJA PROGRAM STUDI DI FMIPA UNIVERSITAS RIAU(Elfitra, 2023-05) Arja, Adila Mutiah; Harison, HarisonRiau University is one of the universities in Riau Province which has several faculties, one of which is FMIPA which has been around for a long time so it is necessary to measure performance to find out how far the activities have been carried out and the goals that have been set are achieved. The parameters used in performance measurement are referred to as Efficiency. In this thesis, the Data Envelopment Analysis approach is used with the CCR model which can evaluate many inputs and outputs in determining the efficiency of the study program. Efficiency measurements were carried out in 6 study programs at FMIPA UNRI with 2 input variables and output variables. The results showed that the Data Envelopment Analysis method can provide an overview based on the value of efficiency, namely that there are 2 study programs that are efficient and 4 study programs that are not efficient.