Browsing by Author "Sihombing, Fenita Wulandari"

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    MODEL FUNGSI TRANSFER DENGAN DERET GANGGUAN UNTUK MERAMALKAN CURAH HUJAN KOTA PEKANBARU TAHUN 2021
    (Elfitra, 2022-05) Sihombing, Fenita Wulandari; Efendi, Rustam
    Rainfall in Pekanbaru has a high intensity compared to other cities in Riau Province but during 2010-2020 the intensity becomes uncertain so it is important to forecast rainfall so that planning in all areas of human life such as agriculture, development, and so on can be maximized. Rainfall forecasting using the ARIMA model is considered less significant, so it developed into an ARIMAX model with the transfer function model method, involving exogenous variables which are assumed to affect endogenous variables. This study aims to predict the rainfall in Pekanbaru using a transfer function model with a disturbance series with wind speed as the exogenous variable. The data is divided into two, namely in sample data (rainfall data and wind speed for the January-December 2020) and out sample data (rainfall and wind speed data for the January-December 2021). Based on the results of the study, it was found that the rainfall forecasting for Pekanbaru from January to December 2021 was known that the rainfall that occurred ranged from -128 mm to 561 mm in the lowhigh rainfall category with a MAPE of 14% which is a good result.