Browsing by Author "Sirait, Haposan"
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Item ANALISIS CLUSTER PENGANGGURAN DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE SELF ORGANIZING MAP(Elfitra, 2023-07) Gunawan, Chairani; Sirait, HaposanUnemployment is a situation where someone is not working or is trying to find a job but unable to find work. The spread of unemployment in Indonesia has different characteristics in each region, so it is necessary to classify the unemployed so that each government policy program can be carried out in a more focused and directed manner. This study discusses cluster analysis of unemployment using the Self Organizing Map (SOM) method in classifying the unemployed in Indonesia in 2020. The SOM method is able to show dominant patterns and variables in clusters. The variables used in this study consisted of school enrollment rates, average length of schooling, labor force participation rates, and the percentage of the population using computers. The results of this study formed 3 unemployment rate clusters with cluster 1 being a low unemployment group consisting of 144 districts/cities, cluster 2 with a medium level consisting of 287 districts/cities, and cluster 3 with a high level consisting of 83 districts/cities. The grouping using the SOM method on district/city unemployment data in Indonesia is good because it has a minimum standard deviation ratio of 0.529.Item ANALISIS PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN MODEL REGRESI SPASIAL(Elfitra, 2023-07) Afrianto, Hendah; Sirait, HaposanUnemployment is one of the problems in employment that is often faced by every country, especially developing countries like Indonesia. The existence of the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia resulted in the open unemployment rate increasing rapidly from previous years. Total population, TPAK, minimum wage, HDI, and poverty are some of the variables that can provide an overview of the open unemployment rate in Indonesia. For this reason, tests were carried out on these variables. The data used in this study uses BPS data, namely the indicator of the Open Unemployment Rate in Indonesia. Analysis was performed using spatial regression with the Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model. Based on the SAR model, there are 2 variables that have a significant effect on the open unemployment rate, namely the population variable which has a positive effect and TPAK which has a negative effect.Item ANALISIS PENGENDALIAN KUALITAS STATISTIK KEMASAN PRODUK AIR MINUM DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN P-CHART DI PT AGRIMITRA UTAMA PERSADA PEKANBARU(Elfitra, 2022-12) Hertanto, Adi; Sirait, HaposanIn the era of advanced and rapidly developing industries, drinking water companies have caused drinking water companies to improve the quality of their products, such as product packaging. Damage or defects on water companies when carrying out production can occur due to factors of employees, equipment, methods, and finished materials from suppliers. So it is necessary to carry out quality control to be able to minimize the causes of defects or packaging damage that occur during the production process. In this study, we will discuss the statistical quality control of drinking water bottles at PT. Agrimitra Utama Persada Pekanbaru using the p-chart method with a confidence level of 97.33%. The results of this study showed that the average damage to packaging was 0.018, the upper control control limit was 0.02404, the lower control control limit was 0.01436. Based on the p-chart, it is known that defects or production damage indicate conditions that are out of control, using the pareto diagram, it is known that the most dominant damage is non-sticky lids at 43.94% and the least is leaky lids at 22.41%.Item ANALISIS VOLATILITAS SAHAM PERUSAHAAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY(Elfitra, 2022-12) Mustikawati, Fitri; Sirait, HaposanThe rate of return is one of the important factors for investors in making decisions when they want to invest. The amount of return obtained can determine the level of price fluctuations over a certain period or can be called volatility. Stock volatility needs to be reviewed to measure how big the level of fluctuation in the price of a stock is, so in this study discussed the analysis of the volatility of PT. AMAG uses the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) method. The results showed that the stock return log data of PT. AMAG has volatility as evidenced by the presence of elements of heteroscedasticity in the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, so it is necessary to continue with the GARCH model testing to overcome the problem of heteroscedasticity or the residual variance is not constant. The best models obtained are ARIMA (0,0,1) and GARCH (1,1), using these models the results of forecasting the stock price index of PT. AMAG for 30 periods did not differ much from the actual data with a MAPE value of 1.44%.Item APLIKASI ENSEMBLE ROCK UNTUK MENGELOMPOKKAN SLB DI PROVINSI RIAU BERDASARKAN SARANA PRASARANA(Elfitra, 2022-10) Minallah, Munzhiroh Rizki; Sirait, HaposanThe 2020 school participation figure states that 20.56% of children in the disability category have the status of not/never been to school (BPS, 2020). This shows that there are still many children with disabilities who have not received adequate education. Therefore, attention to the availability of facilities and access to education for children with disabilities needs to be increased so that there is no inequality of school participation between children with disabilities and non-disabled children. On extraordinary school data statistical methods can be applied for various purposes. The method that can be used to group mixed-type data is ensemble. In this study, the ensemble ROCK (Robust Clustering using links) method was used at 47 extraordinary schools in Riau Province. Using the value 𝜃 of 0.22 in the ROCK ensemble method, we get 3 optimal clusters with a ratio of 0.08177794. It was found that cluster 3 is a cluster that does not have adequate facilities such as a lab, library and internet network than other clusters. It can be said that cluster 3 needs more attention than other clusters. Keywords: Disability, extraordinary school, mixed type data, ensemble ROCK.Item APLIKASI REGRESI SPLINE TRUNCATED PADA DAMPAK KEBAKARAN HUTAN TERHADAP PENDERITA ISPA DI PROVINSI RIAU TAHUN 2015-2020(Elfitra, 2022-12) Putri, Yustitio Mauli; Sirait, HaposanForest fires are a crucial problem in Riau Province because they cause haze pollution that affects public activities and health. In 2019, based on data from the Health Office, victims of ARI disease have reached 281,626 people. Factors that are suspected to affect the number of people with ARI disease are nitrogen dioxide (𝑁02), sulfur dioxide (𝑆02), the number of hotspots, and the area of burnt areas. In this study, skunder data from 2015-2020 was used in 12 districts of Riau Province, by looking at the scatterplot of each variable that is suspected to be influential and does not have a certain pattern so that using the truncated spline regression method, the selection of the optimum knot point of the smallest generalized cross validation value is able to provide the best truncated spline regression model, the results of the method obtained can explain the forest fire against the large number of ARI sufferers. There are 2 variables that significantly affect the number of people with ARI, namely (𝑁02) and hotspots.Item CLUSTERING MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA K-MEANS DAN DBSCAN PADA ANGGARAN PENDAPATAN DAN BELANJA DAERAH DI INDONESIA(Elfitra, 2022-12) Rahmadianissa, Thazkia; Sirait, HaposanThe regional government budget is an annual financial plan that affects the Indonesian economy for one year. Administration of APBD data has not been effectively implemented due to limited human resources. Clustering algorithms are used to group provinces based on regional government budget according to data similarities to facilitate the government in future financial planning. In this study using regional government budget data in 2021 using the k-means and DBSCAN methods. The results of this study using k-means with 2 clusters with cluster 1 contain of 33 provinces and cluster 2 contain of 1 province, that is DKI Jakarta. Meanwhile, using the DBSCAN method with 2 clusters, cluster 1 contain of 30 provinces, cluster 2 contain of 2 provinces there are Central Java and East Java, and 2 noise data, there are DKI Jakarta and West Java.Item CLUSTERING MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA K-MEANS DAN DBSCAN PADA ANGGARAN PENDAPATAN DAN BELANJA DAERAH DI INDONESIA(Elfitra, 2022-12) Rahmadianissa, Thazkia; Sirait, HaposanThe regional government budget is an annual financial plan that affects the Indonesian economy for one year. Administration of APBD data has not been effectively implemented due to limited human resources. Clustering algorithms are used to group provinces based on regional government budget according to data similarities to facilitate the government in future financial planning. In this study using regional government budget data in 2021 using the k-means and DBSCAN methods. The results of this study using k-means with 2 clusters with cluster 1 contain of 33 provinces and cluster 2 contain of 1 province, that is DKI Jakarta. Meanwhile, using the DBSCAN method with 2 clusters, cluster 1 contain of 30 provinces, cluster 2 contain of 2 provinces there are Central Java and East Java, and 2 noise data, there are DKI Jakarta and West Java.Item ESTIMASI RATA-RATA WAKTU PEREKRUTAN KARYAWAN PERUSAHAAN BERDASARKAN DISTRIBUSI KUMARASWAMY(2021-03) Usraini, Laisa; Sirait, HaposanRecruitment of employees in a company is a process to get workers who are able to work in a company, by selecting until the recruitment of prospective employees, so the company must know when the recruitment will be opened. The research objective was to determine the average length of time for recruitment. The method used is Kumaraswamy distribution with three parameters α, β, λ as a measure for the estimated recruitment time, a simplified survival function using the properties of the Laplace transform is used to determine the duration of recruitment time. Based on the estimation of the average time of recruitment, the results show that the greater the value of the parameters α, β, λ, the less chance the average recruitment time is or the tighter the prospective employees are accepted.Item KOMBINASI PENAKSIR RASIO UNTUK RATA-RATA POPULASI PADA SAMPLING ACAK SEDERHANA MENGGUNAKAN KOEFISIEN REGRESI, KOEFISIEN KURTOSIS DAN KOEFISIEN VARIASI(2013-03-13) Ardhi, Defil; Firdaus; Sirait, HaposanThis paper discussed combining ratio estimators in simple random sampling using coefficient regression, coefficient kurtosis, coefficient variance suggested by Kadilar and Cingi [4]. These estimators are biased there for the Mean Square Error is calculated for each estimators to obtain is most efficient estimator. This comparison shows that the combining ratio estimators is more efficient than the ratio estimator it selfItem MENENTUKAN PELUANG RUIN DENGAN METODE KOMBINASI EKSPONENSIAL(2014-03-25) Karmila; Hasriati; Sirait, HaposanThis paper discusses the probability of the state when surplus become negative at the first time in the insurance. That is called the probability of ruin, for the claim amount is supposed to be a combination of exponential distribution. We assume that the claim number distribution is Poisson and the waiting time distribution of the claim is exponential. In this paper, we determine the ruin probability for the claim amount, assuming that it is a combination of exponential distribution, which is called combination of exponential methodItem MENENTUKAN PREFERENSI PELANGGAN DALAM MEMILIH MARKETPLACE MENGGUNAKAN METODE ANALISIS KONJOIN(Elfitra, 2022-01) Agustina, Sri; Sirait, HaposanThe number of online shopping transactions in Indonesia has grown over the last ten years by 17% and the total number of e-commerce businesses has reached 26.2 million units. This creates competition that requires companies to maintain their existence by understanding consumer psychology. This study aims to determine the combination of attribute levels that are most preferred by consumers in choosing a marketplace as a place to shop by using conjoint analysis. The data used is the result of a survey of Riau University students in the form of a questionnaire. The results of the conjoint analysis in this study show that the level of each attribute that respondents prefer is the display of full color applications and images, free shipping promos on a certain amount of purchase, the method of paying Cash On Delivery (COD), using J&T/JNE/Sicepat/Tiki/Pos delivery services, and product reviews are available in the form of photos and videos.Item PEMILIHAN MODEL REGRESI B-SPLINE TERBAIK UNTUK ESTIMASI KENAIKAN HARGA BITCOIN BERDASARKAN ORDE DAN TITIK KNOT OPTIMAL(perpustakaan UR, 2021-07) Faridza, Mohammad Dandi; Sirait, HaposanThe cryptographic virtual currency, bitcoin, is considered the main originator of cryptocurrencies that emerged due United States financial crisis in 2008. The idea was sparked by Nakamoto by introducing an alternative currency system that really refers to the strength of supply and demand. Based on INDODAX data, the bitcoin exchange rate during October 2020 to February 2021 is a condition of a large increase in a short time with a percentage increase of 450%. The increase in bitcoin prices can be modelled using the b-spline nonparametric regression method based on order and optimal knot points based on the smallest Generalized Cross Validation value. The resulting b-spline 4 degree and the number of knots points 5 as the best model with each bases described recursively.Item PEMODELAN SEEMINGLY UNRELATED REGRESSION PADA INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN GENDER DI PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA TAHUN 2020(Elfitra, 2022-12) Bancin, Nurul Ain Hidayah; Sirait, HaposanThe population in North Sumatra Province consists of 14.8 million people with a sex ratio of 95.60%. The disparity between women and men in North Sumatra Province is still quite high in the health, education and employment sectors. This study aims to determine the Seemingly Unrelated Regression model on the gender development index in North Sumatra Province and determine the factors that influence it. The Seemingly Unrelated Regression model is a system of equations consisting of several equations that are interconnected with each other because the errors between the different equations are correlated. Ordinary Least Square estimation can be used to estimate the parameters of each equation but the weakness of Ordinary Least Square can eliminate information about the possibility of a relationship between equations. Seemingly Unrelated Regression modeling is carried out using robust S estimation because the data used contains outliers. Based on the results of the analysis that have a significant effect on the gender development index in the male population are the sex ratio, life expectancy, and the type of education completed at the high school level, while for the female population it is the type of education completed by the senior high school level.Item PEMODELAN UMUR HARAPAN HIDUP PENDUDUK DI PULAU SUMATRA MENGGUNAKAN ANALISIS MODEL SPASIAL DURBIN(Elfitra, 2023-07) Aulia, Sartika Mega; Sirait, HaposanLife expectancy is an indicator in measuring government performance in improving the level of health and well-being of the population of a region. While life expectancy on Sumatra Island has variable values, the quality of public health is less uniform. These variations can be caused by several factors such as education, health services, and economic conditions. Therefore, the government needs to provide further treatment on Sumatra Island by identifying factors that affect life expectancy. The study used a Spatial Durbin Model with Queen Contiguity and Rook Contiguity 154 districts/cities on the island of Sumatra. The variables used in the study were data on life expectancy, average school age, the percentage of many infants who received complete immunization, the percent of households having access to decent drinking water, the proportion of the poor population, the regional gross domestic product in 2021. The results of the study showed that the best model was the model that used the Queen Contiguity weighing matrix because it had a smaller AIC value of 365.22. Factors influencing the life expectancy of the population of Sumatra Island in 2021 using the durbin spatial model with the Queen weigher are the average age of school, the percentage of the poor population, and the regional gross domestic product.Item PENAKSIR BAYES UNTUK PARAMETER DISTRIBUSI DAGUM MENGGUNAKAN ATURAN PRIOR NON-INFORMATIF DENGAN K-LOSS FUNCTION DAN ENTROPY LOSS FUNCTION(2021-04) Sari, Asti Ralita; Sirait, HaposanThe parameter estimator discussed is the parameter estimator of the Dagum distribution with the k-loss function and the entropy loss function using the Bayes method. To get the Bayes estimator from the scale parameter of the Dagum distribution, the Jeffrey’s non-informative prior distribution is used based on the maximum likelihood function and the loss function for the k-loss function and the entropy loss function to obtain an efficient estimator. Determinant of the best estimator is done by comparing the variance values generated from each estimator. An estimator that uses the entropy loss function is the best method for estimating the parameters of the Dagum distribution of the data population with efficient conditions met.Item PENAKSIR DUAL RASIO-CUM-PRODUK UNTUK RATA-RATA POPULASI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN KOEFISIEN KORELAS(2014-03-25) Ilham, Ronni Vel; Efendi, Rustam; Sirait, HaposanThis article discusses three ratio-cum-product estimators forthe population mean using the coefficient of correlation on simple random sampling i.e. ratio-cum-product estimator, dual ratio-cum-product estimator, and combination dual ratio-cum-product estimator. Thethree estimators are biased estimators. Then themean square errors are Determined Furthermore, these mean square errors are compared to the mean square error of each estimator.This comparison shows that the combination dual ratio-cum- product estimator using coefficient of correlationis more efficient than other estimators.Item PENAKSIR DUAL RATIO-CUM-PRODUCT UNTUK RATA-RATA POPULASI PADA SAMPLING ACAK SEDERHANA(2014-03-25) Panjaitan, Christina; Firdaus; Sirait, HaposanThis paper discusses three estimators for the population mean in simple random sampling i.e dual ratio estimator, dual product estimator and dual ratio-cum-product estimator. These estimators are biased estimators. The mean square error for each estimator is evaluated and compared to obtain the most efficient one. This comparison shows that the dual ratio-cum-product estimator is more efficient than the dual ratio estimator and dual product estimator.Item PENAKSIR PARAMETER DISTRIBUSI INVERS MAXWELL UKURAN BIAS SAMPEL MENGGUNAKAN METODE BAYESIAN(2017-01-10) Adrianti, Rince; Sirait, HaposanThis article discusses the estimator for parameter of inverse Maxwell distribution via size-biased sampling by Bayes method, this is a review of Singh dan Srivastava [International Journal of Science and Research, 3 (2014), 1835–1839]. The process of Bayes inference starts under squared error loss function and entropy loss function, by using quasi prior. The performance of the obtained estimator from Bayes method with two different loss function are then compared among themselves by computing mean square error (MSE) of each estimator.Item PENAKSIR PARAMETER DISTRIBUSI WEIBULL BERDASARKAN SENSOR TIPE I(2017-01-10) Anggraini, Rizka; Sirait, HaposanThis article discusses parameters of Weibull distribution type-I censored. The estimators are obtained through maximum likelihood method. The estimators of Weibull distribution type-I censored does not have explisit solution. Then the numerical approach is applied, which is called approximate maximum likelihood estimators through numerical method, so that the estimators are obained explicit form.