Browsing by Author "Tampubolon, Putri Soraya"

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    PERAMALAN KEMUNCULAN TITIK PANAS DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN ANALISIS INTERVENSI FUNGSI PULSE
    (Elfitra, 2023-10) Tampubolon, Putri Soraya; Bustami, Bustami
    The forest area in Indonesia is decreasing, caused by forest fires either intentionally through land clearing or unintentionally due to climate change. Hotspots are an indicator used in detecting fires on a land. Efforts can be made to overcome the fire problem by forecasting the number of hotspots in Indonesia using intervention analysis. The intervention method is used to examine data that has increased in an extreme manner. There are two functions in the intervention method, namely step and pulse functions. This study uses pulse function intervention on hotspot occurrence data in Indonesia because the intervention is temporary and only occurs at a certain time. The results of this study showed that the intervention SARIMA model with order 𝑏 = 0, 𝑠 = 0, 𝑟 = 1 is a good model in forecasting the occurrence of hotspots in Indonesia with a MAPE value of 8.06%.